Imagine the captain of a tall ship, who sets out with his crew to distant, unknown destinations. In order to steer his ship towards a good future, he needs to regularly get a picture of how the sea and the weather will develop over the coming hours and days. The captain and his crew are dependent on natural forces. They cannot influence them, let alone steer them in a certain direction. Thinking creatively about the future weather is of no help to them either; fantasy is out of place here. The captain needs to get hold of available weather data and process them into his own personal assumptions about the future about the weather in the coming hours and days using his experience, powers of observation and logic.

A clever captain will not rely solely on his own estimates. He will ask his officers and weather specialists for their personal assumptions about the future. He will not fully understand it and his crew, in turn, will not necessarily understand every aspect of his assumptions. A common picture of the future weather situation will only be arrived at gradually after discussions. A sail strategy can be developed based on these common assumptions about the future although there may be a certain variation, on assumptions about the wind direction for example. The sail strategy should ideally also be able to be implemented even if the deviating assumptions about the future later prove to have been more correct.

What color does the captain see when he looks at the sea and the sky? Blue! He is wearing the blue futures glasses for the probable future.

The captain knows that only one thing is more or less certain on his journey into the future: that the future will surprise him. A lot of things could surprise him: monsters (freak waves more than thirty meters high, which really do occur twice a day ), heavy storms or pirates, who still make life difficult for seafarers today, in the Strait of Malacca for example, where hundreds of pirate attacks take place every year. All of this is unlikely, yet possible.

The sailors can avoid such threats if they know about them. They can choose a less risky route or, if the risk of pirates is too great for example, even decide on the second-best but less risky strategic vision for the ship. The captain and his officers will in any case take protective equipment and weapons with them and train their crew to prepare for encounters with pirates or freak waves. The captain can only protect the ship against freak waves if he avoids the open sea. Before he gives his officers the command for the direction of the interim strategic vision, he will imagine these and other surprises in order to prepare for them using contingency strategies.

If pirates attack without warning, what flows? Correct – blood. And blood is…red! The captain is wearing the red glasses for the surprising future.

In the next step, the captain needs to consider possible destinations that he could head for with his crew. Which fertile countries and islands can be reached and conquered? This is not a scheduled trip, but an expedition into unknown territory. No one has ever been there before, none of the crew, but also no one else from their country. They only know the possible destinations from hearsay and in the case of some destinations it is doubtful if they actually exist and are not just a product of the imagination of visionaries and gurus. Furthermore, the captain and many of his crew develop their own fantasies and paint such colorful pictures of worthwhile destinations that they are convinced that these fertile countries and islands really exist. What is needed when thinking and talking about possible destinations is the crew’s imagination and creativity rather than its experience. Experience-based logic often even prevents excellent opportunities from being developed.

What color does the captain see when he thinks about fertile countries and islands? Green! He is wearing the green futures glasses for the creatable future.

If the captain and his officers do not decide on one of the destinations they have imagined, they can only throw anchor or waste time, energy and money by sailing aimlessly. They have to decide which of the possible and worthwhile destinations they want to head for. They cannot steer their ship towards several destinations or several visions. A vision is always singular. The destinations they imagined are quasi vision candidates. Which vision candidates fit to the assumptions on the weather and the sea? Which vision candidates fit to the potential and capabilities of the crew? Which vision candidates can be reached with this ship in an appropriate amount of time and with an appropriate amount of effort? After all, there are several competitive ships and every destination can only provide a living for a small number of ships. Which vision candidates does the crew eagerly accept? The captain will finally decide on one of the vision candidates with his crew and thus arrive at a strategic vision, albeit a temporary one at first. Having a concrete, fascinating, jointly strived for and yet achievable vision is like sailing towards the sun.

What color does the captain see when he sails towards the sun? Yellow! He is wearing the yellow futures glasses for the desired future.

Once the captain has made assumptions about the future with his team about the probable development and future of the sea and the weather, conceived of and evaluated the possible destinations as opportunities, determined the vision, thought through surprises and developed contingency strategies, he can start planning – creating the most obvious future. The seafarers now determine strategic sub-objectives on the way to the strategic vision and support all of this, in modern terms through the introduction and adjustment of processes, projects and systems. Pragmatism and realism are what are called for here. At this point, the seafarers think about opportunities again. How can the strategic vision be achieved in an efficient and intelligent way? This creative phase is similar to the one in which they looked for destinations. But the opportunities being looked for here are of a more operative nature. They are concerned with the how? Finally, they need to plan and implement.

When you plan and then act on a sailing ship, you are going to get bruised. And the worst of them are which color? Violet! The captain wears the violet futures glasses for the planned future.

The tasks of the captain and his officers are very similar to those of an entrepreneur and his management team. And, as in principle everyone is the Chairman of the Board of his own life enterprise, the sailing ship example can be applied to almost everyone’s future management. Someone who is on a journey by plane, train or automobile has a known and exactly described route in front of him. When we move towards the future, these trodden paths or even paved roads do not exist. That is why the example of a windjammer on a journey of discovery is so suitable, even if it seems a little construed in detail.