{"id":114392,"date":"2026-01-14T13:46:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T13:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/bfl-content\/geoeconomics-and-technologies-four-scenarios-for-2030\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T14:39:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T14:39:44","slug":"geoeconomics-and-technologies-four-scenarios-for-2030","status":"publish","type":"bfl-content","link":"https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/en\/bfl-content\/geoeconomics-and-technologies-four-scenarios-for-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Geoeconomics and technologies: four scenarios for 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"114392\" class=\"elementor elementor-114392 elementor-114380\" data-elementor-post-type=\"bfl-content\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1de8949 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1de8949\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a9b99db elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a9b99db\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/reports.weforum.org\/docs\/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The World Economic Forum\u2019s new analysis shows<\/a> that the global economy is not heading back to \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d by 2030, but towards a new structurally different economy in which geopolitical power shifts and technological change are tightly intertwined. Global value creation is becoming more fragmented, regulation more uneven and technological advantages increasingly geopolitically relevant. For companies, this means less planning certainty and a greater premium on strategic adaptability.  <\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The white paper builds on four futures that are not forecasts but structured scenarios, designed to illustrate how markets, technology use and geopolitical conditions could evolve in very different ways.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3383f1a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3383f1a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Four scenarios for the global economy in 2030<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1303f78 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"1303f78\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"452\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-1024x579.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-114386\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-1024x579.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-768x434.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-1536x868.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.futuremanagementgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Scenarios_Geoeconomics-2048x1157.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48a3e0e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"48a3e0e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ol class=\"marker:text-quiet list-decimal\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Digitalized Order<\/strong><br>Geopolitical stability and rapid, widespread technology adoption revive growth and support a more digitally integrated global economy. At the same time, labour markets are reshaped, competitive pressure and inequality increase, and the risks of technology misuse call for much stronger governance. <\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Cautious Stability<\/strong><br>Geopolitical stability reduces risk and creates more predictable conditions, but growth remains weak as frontier technologies deliver only limited productivity gains and diffuse slowly. The benefits of innovation are concentrated among incumbent players, while jobs and wages change only gradually. <\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Tech-based Survival<\/strong><br>Widespread technology adoption creates new efficiencies, but takes place against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical volatility. Companies lean heavily on digital tools, AI and automation to cope with disruption, yet face fragmented markets, regulatory divergence and an environment where trust, coordination and stability are in short supply. <\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Geotech Spheres<\/strong><br>As geopolitical volatility increases, countries retreat into tighter geoeconomic blocs and regional trade circles. Growth slows, asset prices fall and, despite reshoring of production and critical technologies, talent and skills shortages persist. Technology develops in separate geotech spheres with reduced global interoperability and higher barriers between competing systems. <\/p><\/li><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4440a99 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4440a99\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Why this matters for leaders and companies<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-62d2424 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"62d2424\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Across all four futures, global integration can no longer be taken for granted. Companies need strategies that are robust across multiple possible trajectories, actively manage their technological dependencies and build more resilient organizations. Competitive advantage will emerge where technological capabilities, geoeconomic insight and strategic flexibility come together. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d99fc2a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d99fc2a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">No-regret strategies for the new economy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-97f4644 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"97f4644\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Strengthen core processes and operational excellence<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Build geoeconomic intelligence and geopolitical capabilities<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Enhance strategic foresight and data-driven decision-making<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Invest in resilient and agile supply chains<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Accelerate the adoption and scaling of new technologies<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Secure and modernize critical infrastructure<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Develop more agile capital allocation models<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Align technology deployment with human capital development<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Deepen strategic partnerships and alliances<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-20ecb24 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"20ecb24\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><a href=\"https:\/\/reports.weforum.org\/docs\/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here for the World Economic Forum scenario paper.<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0bcebfa e-grid e-con-full e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"0bcebfa\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dda15ad elementor-align-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"dda15ad\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"javascript:secureDecryptAndNavigate('BemQxtg22ckIWYaLYiKRCpwsR1ffpE4yNxK\/BxCKdeEhQ+jLC7ilxR7cIk1rU7HQocXmufgOO0hmXnNC\/fkn7OiAp60M1Tw4jW3rq4Eh+qnEl4KlLfGb', 'f8a14df884199590ecedf841d0ca0c34364bb0a9dc51105c08b3f5bdcea38dd6')\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-mail-bulk\" viewBox=\"0 0 576 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M160 448c-25.6 0-51.2-22.4-64-32-64-44.8-83.2-60.8-96-70.4V480c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h256c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V345.6c-12.8 9.6-32 25.6-96 70.4-12.8 9.6-38.4 32-64 32zm128-192H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v16c25.6 19.2 22.4 19.2 115.2 86.4 9.6 6.4 28.8 25.6 44.8 25.6s35.2-19.2 44.8-22.4c92.8-67.2 89.6-67.2 115.2-86.4V288c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32zm256-96H224c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32h96c33.21 0 60.59 25.42 63.71 57.82l.29-.22V416h192c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V192c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32zm-32 128h-64v-64h64v64zm-352-96c0-35.29 28.71-64 64-64h224V32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32H96C78.33 0 64 14.33 64 32v192h96v-32z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">E-mail to FMG<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6fbc8dd e-grid e-con-full e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"6fbc8dd\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ebed50e elementor-align-left elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"ebed50e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/meetings.hubspot.com\/bm8\/fspo\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-far-calendar-alt\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M148 288h-40c-6.6 0-12-5.4-12-12v-40c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v40c0 6.6-5.4 12-12 12zm108-12v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 96v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm-96 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm192 0v-40c0-6.6-5.4-12-12-12h-40c-6.6 0-12 5.4-12 12v40c0 6.6 5.4 12 12 12h40c6.6 0 12-5.4 12-12zm96-260v352c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V112c0-26.5 21.5-48 48-48h48V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h128V12c0-6.6 5.4-12 12-12h40c6.6 0 12 5.4 12 12v52h48c26.5 0 48 21.5 48 48zm-48 346V160H48v298c0 3.3 2.7 6 6 6h340c3.3 0 6-2.7 6-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Arrange a call<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The analysis of the World Economic Forum shows: The global economy is not moving back to the old normal by 2030, but into a structurally changed economy. Geopolitical power shifts and technological developments characterize four different scenarios that can provide companies with guidance for strategic decisions in an increasingly uncertain environment. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4498,"featured_media":114382,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"bfl-content_kategorie":[],"bfl_content_schlagworte":[1009,948,966],"class_list":["post-114392","bfl-content","type-bfl-content","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bfl_content_schlagworte-economy","bfl_content_schlagworte-geopolitics","bfl_content_schlagworte-scenarios"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Geoeconomics and technologies: four scenarios for 2030 | FutureManagementGroup AG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The four 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