Dr. Pero Micic

Will electric cars really dominate? Are electric cars really the future? If you want to have a competent voice on these questions, this is THE video for you. I’ll give you all the key arguments. And at the end, I’ll tell you what I think about this.

Here we are talking about combustion engines, i.e. diesel and gasoline passenger cars and battery electric cars. We will deal with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in one of the next issues.

This is the video version of this article.

What I will be presenting here are all measurable, verifiable facts. I put the sources at the bottom of this article. Some sections are my personal assumptions about the future. And no, I’m not paid by anyone to make this video. I am curious already how you would answer the question and what arguments you have. Write it in the comments.

Plus Arguments

Let’s make a balance of arguments now. What is the case for the dominance of electric cars, what is the case against it. Let’s first look at the plus arguments that argue in favor of us all buying electric cars by 2030.

Convenience and charging

1000 km of range

The range of an electric car will be close to 1,000 km in 2030. Although hardly anyone really needs that. The average driver would only need to charge once every three weeks. B. In fact, electric cars will be charged the same way as cell phones, while you sleep. Only on long-distance journeys do you need a fast charger every few hours on the highway.

300 km in 5 minutes

Lithium-ion batteries will charge well over 300 km in 10 minutes in 2030. The upcoming solid state batteries, whenever they emerge, will charge over 500 km in five minutes or less. Even on long-distance journeys, the coffee break is more than sufficient.

Charging everywhere

Tesla has proven as a startup with little money that the claim that the charging infrastructure is a problem because it is so expensive was wrong. There will be charging stations everywhere in 2030.

Charging saves time

It usually only takes 5 minutes per week. Plug it in, unplug it, once or twice a week. You don’t go charging, you almost always charge while you sleep.

Reliability and safety

Maximum reliability

Battery electric drives are extremely simple. The famous comparison is that an electric drive has only 20 moving parts, but a combustion engine has 1,500 or more. It can break down much less because there is much less. That’s why electric cars are very reliable and hardly need any repairs.

High accident safety

Ohne den großen Motor in der Front haben sie mehr Knautschzone. Die feste Batterie im Boden bietet höchste Sicherheit beim Seitenaufprall.

High fire safety

And, to defy a rumour, they burn at least five times less often than fossil fuel carss.

Emotion

More joy of driving

Electric cars offer more driving pleasure because they accelerate immediately and more powerfully.

Image change

I assume that by 2030, driving a gas burner will be uncool. That’s an unobjective but weighty argument.

Cost

Battery for 2 million km

The most expensive thing in electric cars today is the battery. In 2030, batteries will last over 2 million kilometers. Already today it will soon be 1 million miles, 1,6 km. At today’s average mileage, that corresponds to over 100 years. In theory. In fact, such mileage will not be needed by individual human drivers but by autonomous robo-taxis.

Cheaper battery production

In 2030, batteries will cost a maximum of one third per KWh compared to today. The costs have fallen by an average of 15% each year. And they continue to fall.

Lower purchase price

Therefore, in 2030 the purchase of an electric car is already drastically cheaper than buying an fossil fuel car.

Cheaper operation

In terms of total operating costs per kilometer, electric cars will be cheaper already in the early 2020s. A Tesla Model 3 is already a whole lot cheaper per kilometer than a Toyota Camry. By 2030, internal combustion engines will no longer have a chance to compete in price.

Raw materials

Raw materials for decades

The raw materials required for today’s lithium-ion batteries are not really in short supply if you look at it neutrally. New batteries are becoming even more resource-efficient. Rare earth materials are not used in batteries anyway, but in electric motors and also .n combustion engine cars, and mobile phones, and laptops, and vacuum cleaners.

95% recyclable batteries

Batteries are recyclable to an extent of at least 95%. Even after 1 million km virtually all material is still in the battery. There is no reason that there will not be enough recycling capacity. Any claim of overexploitation is baseless.

Minimum critical raw materials

Lithium-ion batteries will require less critical raw materials such as cobalt, possibly not at all. We will then only discuss child labour when it comes to batteries for mobile phones, PCs, shavers etc.

Electricity

Only 20% more electricity

Even with 100% electric cars we only need a maximum of 20% more electricity. Two fossil fuel cars need as much electricity to produce their fuel as is needed to run an electric car.

New electricity storage systems

The storage of electricity for days, weeks and even months is currently being pioneered by countless innovations, such as giga-batteries, gravity energy storage and many new solutions. I will make an episode about this.

Political independence

Many countries have to import oil to a large extent. And not always from reputable suppliers. We can generate the energy for electric cars here in our countries. This may not be a strong buying argument, but it is an important political argument.

Environment

Reduced energy consumption

A big Tesla needs only one third of the energy of a VW Golf for 100 km. Battery electric drives are by far the most efficient.

Low water consumption

Two beef steaks or eleven avocados cause more water consumption than the production of a very large battery.

Minimized CO2 emissions

CO2 pollution will be minimal well before 2030 due to battery production with regenerative energy (especially at Tesla). Combustion engine cars do not have this potential. The share of electricity from renewable sources is growing strongly. Even today in the rather poor electricity mix, electric cars are already more environmentally friendly. Fossil fuel cars continue to consume the finite oil and to emit pollutants. Emissions from electric cars continue to decrease. Both in production and in operation. Fossil fuel vehicles are without much further potential in this respect.

Minus Arguments

And now, what’s to stop us buying electric cars on our way to 2030, if we still buy cars at all?

Technology

Innovation with ICE

Some say: There will be a great innovative leap for fossil fuel cars! Which one? I don’t see it. Electric drives are at the beginning of their development. Combustion engines are already at their end of development.

Hydrogen is the future

In ten years, hydrogen fuel cell propulsion will be ready, you hear people argue. The claim: Battery electric drives are only a transitional technology. A majority still believes that battery electric cars are an interim technology and that the hydrogen fuel cell car will win in ten years. No, hydrogen as an energy storage medium in passenger cars makes no technical, economic or ecological sense. And we have been researching it for decades. There is a piece on my plan about that matter.

Plug-in hybrid best solution

Plug-in hybrids are also combustion engines and they have a much higher range. Plug-in hybrids with two complete drives are a technically, economically and ecologically nonsensical alternative in 2030. With a range of 1,000 kilometres they are also unnecessary.

Economy

Why change?

Other say: We have everything here that is needed to produce wonderfully running  combustion cars. Equipment, know-how, experts etc. So why change anything? That’s how Nokia thought about the iPhone. How do you explain this to customers? The customers are beginning to see the benefits in terms of performance, driving pleasure, ecology and costs. The Chinese will focus on simple electric drives and offer incredibly good and affordable electric cars and some of us will buy them.

Protect our car industry!

But we must protect our traditional car industry! Oh yes, we have to. Not so much protect as save it. But customers will not be interested enough in that and if we can do something super good, fossil fuel cars, that nobody buys anymore, we will have a problem even more.

Don’t believe the advantages

Anyone who believes that the arguments about the lower environmental impact of electric cars are not true will find electric cars bad. In the long term, however, it will become less and less possible to argue against the facts that a car powered by diesel or gas is more environmentally friendly or conserves resources or does not cause political and social conflicts over oil.

Those who, contrary to the technical facts, believe that batteries are toxic waste and simply ignore recycling will not like electric cars. Whenever someone does not want to believe the facts about sufficient raw materials without child labour, high ranges and short charging times etc., he or she will not like electric drives.

It is then not fact-based arguments, but emotionally determined opinions. They may not be true, but they do lead to people rejecting electric cars for as long as they can. Ultimately, it will be the same as with smartphones. There were all sorts of factual and unobjective arguments against smartphones, such as the seven-day range of a charge. And? What happened? Almost everyone has a smartphone today and charges it daily.

So, on aggregate, it is a clear case. Hence, yes, electric cars will dominate the passenger vehicle market. To sum it up, my assumption for the future is that in 2030 hardly anyone will buy anything other than an electric car.

So, im Ganzen betrachtet, sieht das doch eindeutig aus. Uns so komme ich zur Zukunftsannahme: 2030 kauft so gut wie niemand mehr etwas anderes als ein Elektroauto. Wir können ja wetten 😊.

What do you think? Of course, you can disagree. But please do not just do so out of emotions, but with factual and logical arguments. Share this article broadly with friends and contacts so that they too can have their say.

Sources

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  22. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp99BpT514U
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