How do you know if you’re assessing the future correctly?

Enno Däneke

Coordinate future assessments together

Estimates of the future are always associated with uncertainty. In the final analysis, you can only find out in retrospect whether you were correct in your assessments of the future. However, you can and should already have a clear picture of your own (future) assumptions.

For you and your leadership team, a first step toward greater clarity looks like this. Take five minutes to write down the most important things (in your opinion) that will change in the market in the next five years or in the next ten years. Then make a note of what will not change in return, what will stay the same. Your team will do the above steps for you.

If you compare the results, you will mostly encounter complete chaos. In most cases, completely different assessments of the future are revealed. And that is the rule, not the exception. Even management teams of successful and apparently well-run companies have this problem.

For you, this raises the question of how you should lead your company into the future together in this way.

How can you, metaphorically speaking, steer a ship when the entire officer crew has different assessments of which way the wind is blowing? Under these conditions, it is almost impossible for you to set the sails correctly.

Therefore: You must systematically question your own assumptions, as I did here a few years ago using the example of electromobility .

What’s next?

Once the results have been established, the real work begins. You need to question which topics are actually relevant and what your company’s business depends on.

Often, these are not excessive issues. As a rule, there are only five to ten central questions on which your existence and your success in the future depend. You and your company must deal with these systematically:

  • What needs to stay the same for your business to be successful?
  • What changes threaten your business and can destroy it?
  • What technologies need to catch on for your past investments to pay off?

Ask yourself these questions and you will find out in which areas you are on the right track and in which areas there is still need for action. These questions will also help you avoid missing out on specific opportunities.

Only if you ask yourself these central questions and deal with your own assessments of the future can you be sure of recognizing the dangers, but also the potential for the future for your company.

Follow these links as well:

► The Future Strategy Program for SMEs

► Free video crash course THE FUTURE OF YOUR BUSINESS
► BUSINESS WARGAMING for robust business and future opportunities
► KEYNOTES by Pero Mićić for your employees and customers

Have a bright future!